How long will the Blu-ray disc format last?
In 2002 I blogged about DVDs outselling videocasettes for the first time. In the past six years the standard DVD format has peaked and is in serious decline. Up next is the Blu-ray Disc format but how long will it last?
Videocasettes dominated home video for over 20 years. DVDs were the preferred home video format for just over 6 years. How long will the Blue-ray disc format last?
I’ve invested a lot of money in the standard DVD format and have a great collection of films. I doubt that I’ll upgrade many of these discs to Blu-ray. I think that would be a complete waste of money. Thankfully, Blu-ray players are compatible with standard DVD.
The next 10 years should be interesting in terms of the digital distribution of film. A lot of people think that Blu-ray will be the last disc format. In the future, movies might be sold on flash media or via the web.
I like being able to own a physical disc with liner notes. Having my entire film library on a server seems too risky. I think it will take another generation or two for people to get comfortable with the idea of having all of their digital data on a server or flash memory devices.
For now, I just hope that Blu-ray lasts for more than 6 years before it becomes obsolete.
Stumble It!Posted in Home Theatre at 9:18 PM
Comments
Not long. Blu-ray is doomed for a few reasons 1) opressive DRM scheme 2) Profiles. Sony clearly is pushing the PS3 as the premiere Blu-ray player: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08033/854152-96.stm but lay persons (non-gamers) will not buy a PS3 to watch mavies.
Studio support is irrelevant. consumers have so many choices when it comes to entertainment - VOD, PPV, Xbox live and now iTunes.
the only way either format will prevail is if one fo the formats can convince consumers to purchse thier players as an upgrade to their current DVD players. HD DVD is in the best position for that.
Yes, I prefer HD DVD.
Posted by: ilovehddvd on February 2, 2008 10:57 AM
Why do you say standard DVD is in serious decline? I’m on a number of DVD and cinephile mailing lists and none of them think SD is going anywhere for at least 5 years, and more likely 10. High-definition televisions are selling well, but Blu-Ray is still too expensive (players) and most SD DVD players upconvert discs so they look great on HD televisions.
I’m curious where you’re getting your pessimism!
Posted by: James McNally 
on February 2, 2008 1:13 PM
The problem with the HD DVD format is that the movie studios that used to support it have been dropping like flies.
James, I’ll agree that standard DVD isn’t going anywhere for at least another 5 years but sales slowing down. David Bishop, president of Sony Pictures Home Entertainment and other studios agree that DVD sales are in decline as mentioned in a recent Hollywood Reporter story:
Bishop and his fellow studio leaders agree this message is critical, as standard DVD clearly is on the decline and the home entertainment business desperately needs something to invigorate it.
Back in July of 2005, Businessweek posted a story about declining DVD sales — End of the DVD Party?. In 2006, Blend Television published another story about the slowdown in DVD sales — Sales Decline Portend Possible DVD Doomsday.
From another article:
The DVD businesses, one of the movie industry’s biggest sources of profits, is expected to post a year-over-year sales decline for the first time since the format’s rise a decade ago. Sales, which were flat a year ago at around $16 billion, were down over 4% through the end of November, and analysts expect a full-year drop of around 2%.
While DVD sales are down, it doesn’t mark the death of the format. You’re right. Standard DVD will be around for quite some time but Blu-ray, a saturation of DVD titles and high-definition content (via cable and satellite) is contributing to a decline in DVD sales.
Posted by: Jay on February 2, 2008 5:36 PM
I’m excited about the potential to rent HD content from sources like Apple. But…..I want more than one vendor, I want 1080p (even though I don’t have the TV yet!) and I want a huge library like Netflix in the US.
How fast can someone build that and make it available here in Canada? I’m not holding my breath.
Posted by: James McNally on February 2, 2008 8:30 PM
Interesting article from Gizmodo about HD downloads (Vudu and AppleTV):
http://gizmodo.com/352392/vudu-test-confirms-hd-download-worries-plus-what-needs-to-be-done
Posted by: James McNally on February 4, 2008 3:27 PM
Bandwidth will have to increase A LOT before HD downloads become a worthwhile option to consumers. With all of the doom and gloom about the web slowing down because of illegal video download and music piracy, I don’t know where the extra bandwidth is going to magically appear from.
The difference between the Vudu HD download and the standard definition video in the Gizmodo demo (see link above) is minor. The quality of HD that I’ve seen on satellite TV is noticeably better than DVD but still not as good as the Blu-Ray and HD DVD demos I’ve seen.
Maybe Blu-Ray will outlast DVD as content providers try to figure out online distribution of HD video or the next great HD format for consumers.
Posted by: Jay on February 4, 2008 3:58 PM
